megacities update - 07.11.2014

In Urbanization Update, U.N. Sees Tokyo Atop Megacities List Until 2030
By ANDREW C. REVKIN  JULY 10, 2014 1:08 PM



With nearly 38 million residents in the metropolitan region, Tokyo remains the world’s biggest city and the United Nations projects it will remain so at least until 2030.Credit Jack Revkin

The United Nations Population Division has completed the 2014 revision of its continuing survey of urbanization, “World Urbanization Prospects.” Interestingly, despite Japan’s shrinking population, Tokyo not only remains atop the list of biggest cities, with close to 38 million people in its metropolitan region, but is expected to stay there through 2030, with Delhi close behind by then, according to the new analysis. There’s a useful set of country profiles to explore.

There are enormous issues managing these burgeoning populations and spreading urban areas — ranging from managing garbage, sewage and water to resolving conflicts when millions of informal settlers are pressed by waves of gentrification, as my students chronicled in a Rio de Janeiro hillside settlement last spring.

But it’s not all “Blade Runner” by a long shot. In Beijing earlier this summer for a Future Earth science planning session, I wandered over to a “fitness park” that, despite being ringed by soaring residential towers, was a humane haven for elderly dancers, couples pushing strollers and children poking at tadpoles in small artificial ponds.

In considering what fast-urbanizing nations can do to make sure the expansion of cities comes with the fewest social and environmental regrets, it’s important not to get too focused on megacities. In many countries, particularly China, the fastest rates of growth are actually in what might be called microcities — urban centers of several hundred thousand to a million or so that were just towns or villages a decade or two ago. It can be harder to influence development patterns in such places, according to Karen Seto of Yale University, a specialist in urbanization and land use. She stressed this point in a recent panel discussion I moderated at The Times on China’s growth patterns. I encourage you to read “Realizing China’s Urban Dream,” a valuable Nature commentary by Xuemei Bai of Australian National University and two co-authors, for a vision of the challenges and opportunities in fast-growing cities.

[Update | Just in time for World Population Day tomorrow, the Population Institute has produced "Population By the Numbers," a batch of informative graphics on population trends, good and bad.]

Here’s the United Nations news release on its new cities report, with lots more — including the latest “top 10″ list (teaser, the New York City metropolitan region is tied with Cairo at the bottom of this list):

Today, 54 per cent of the world’s population lives in urban areas, a proportion that is expected to increase to 66 per cent by 2050. Projections show that urbanization combined with the overall growth of the world’s population could add another 2.5 billion people to urban populations by 2050, with close to 90 percent of the increase concentrated in Asia and Africa, according to a new United Nations report launched today.

The 2014 revision of the World Urbanization Prospects produced by the UN Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs notes that the largest urban growth will take place in India, China and Nigeria. These three countries will account for 37 per cent of the projected growth of the world’s urban population between 2014 and 2050. By 2050, India is projected to add 404 million urban dwellers, China 292 million and Nigeria 212 million.

The urban population of the world has grown rapidly from 746 million in 1950 to 3.9 billion in 2014. Asia, despite its lower level of urbanization, is home to 53 per cent of the world’s urban population, followed by Europe with 14 per cent and Latin America and the Caribbean with 13 per cent.

The world’s urban population is expected to surpass six billion by 2045. Much of the expected urban growth will take place in countries of the developing regions, particularly Africa. As a result, these countries will face numerous challenges in meeting the needs of their growing urban populations, including for housing, infrastructure, transportation, energy and employment, as well as for basic services such as education and health care.

“Managing urban areas has become one of the most important development challenges of the 21st century. Our success or failure in building sustainable cities will be a major factor in the success of the post-2015 UN development agenda,” said John Wilmoth, Director of the Population Division in the UN’s Department of Economic and Social Affairs.

Mega-cities with more than 10 million people are increasing in number

The report notes that in 1990, there were ten “mega-cities” with 10 million inhabitants or more, which were home to 153 million people or slightly less than seven per cent of the global urban population at that time. In 2014, there are 28 mega-cities worldwide, home to 453 million people or about 12 percent of the world’s urban dwellers. Of today’s 28 mega-cities, sixteen are located in Asia, four in Latin America, three each in Africa and Europe, and two in Northern America. By 2030, the world is projected to have 41 mega-cities with 10 million inhabitants or more.

Tokyo remains the world’s largest city with 38 million inhabitants, followed by Delhi with 25 million, Shanghai with 23 million, and Mexico City, Mumbai and São Paulo, each with around 21 million inhabitants. Osaka has just over 20 million, followed by Beijing with slightly less than 20 million. The New York-Newark area and Cairo complete the top ten most populous urban areas with around 18.5 million inhabitants each.

Although Tokyo’s population is projected to decline, it will remain the world’s largest city in 2030 with 37 million inhabitants, followed closely by Delhi, whose population is projected to rise swiftly to 36 million in 2030. While Osaka and New York-Newark were the world’s second and third largest urban areas in 1990, by 2030 they are projected to fall in rank to the 13th and 14th positions, respectively, as mega-cities in developing countries become more prominent.

more with sources, here:
http://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/2014/07/10/in-u-n-population-update-tokyo-still-tops-list-of-megacities/

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"America is an irradiated wasteland. Within it lies a city. Outside the boundary walls, a desert: The Cursed Earth. Inside the walls: the cursed city, stretching from Boston to Washington, DC. An unbroken concrete landscape. 800 million people living in the ruin of the old world and the mega-structures of the new one. Mega-blocks, mega-highways, Mega City One..."
--Judge Dredd

"megacorporations/megaregions/megacities/urbanization - the control grid"
http://globalistnews.blogspot.com/2014/04/megacorporationsmegaregionsmegacitiesur.html